Hispanics may swing some close elections
Adriana Garcia
Routers Yahoo
Nov 6, 2006
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hispanic voters in the United States, a growing bloc, could play a key role in deciding close races in at least four states on Tuesday, experts said.
Although they won't play a decisive role in key races being fought in states with smaller Hispanic populations, they could influence the outcome of a key Senate race in New Jersey, House races in Arizona and New Mexico and a race for governor in Florida, said pollster Sergio Bendixen of Bendixen and Associates.
Regional issues are important in many races, and it's unclear which party will benefit from their turnout, political analysts said. But some believe the Republican stance on the controversial issue of immigration may hurt the party.
The battle for the New Jersey seat of Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, who is being challenged by Republican Thomas Kean Jr., the son of a popular former governor, is a crucial race in the battle for Senate control. Menendez is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
"You can expect the majority of Hispanics to show up to vote in New Jersey, where they are more than 10 percent of the electorate," Miami-based Bendixen said.
The border states of Arizona and New Mexico may also see Hispanics influencing the ballots in a year when immigration became a hot political topic.
Arizona was in the center of the immigration debate, and Republican congressional candidate Randy Graf has taken a hardline stance on illegal border crossings in his race against Democrat Gabrielle Giffords.
In neighboring New Mexico, Hispanics could play a key role in deciding whether Republican Rep. Heather Wilson (news, bio, voting record) loses her re-election bid to Democrat Patricia Madrid, the state's Hispanic attorney general.
"Graf could lose to a Democrat with his strong anti-immigrant speech, and in New Mexico, Patricia Madrid may very well take the congressional seat of Wilson," said political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia.
SWING VOTE IN FLORIDA
Bendixen said Hispanic votes could also play a key role in the Florida governor's race to replace outgoing Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, President George W. Bush's brother.
"Based on recent polls, this is going to be a very close race, so Hispanics can be the swing vote," he said.
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